In-depth Analysis and Consulting on Sustainable Energy Technologies, Policies, and Markets

Solar photovoltaic (PV) is rapidly growing globally, with solar energy accounting for 73% of the 345 GW of renewable energy capacity added in 2023, according to IRENA. Armenia, despite its small size and energy dependency (80% of energy imported), has emerged as a regional leader in PV with 470 MW installed by 2024, over half from 17,000 rooftop systems. The country has adopted strategic policies like the Renewable Energy Development Program (2022) and aims for 1.5 GW of PV by 2040. A liberalized energy market and reforms support this growth, but challenges remain, including grid bottlenecks and market scalability.

The ENABLING PV project, initiated by eclareon and BSW-Solar in 2013, promotes PV deployment through international cooperation and local partnerships. Armenia’s potential PV capacity by 2050 is estimated at 2.6 GW, equal to its total installed power capacity in 2023. This report aims to foster German-Armenian collaboration to expand renewables in Armenia.

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Green hydrogen offers a sustainable solution to reduce emissions in hard-to-abate sectors, and has the potential to play a leading role in global decarbonisation efforts. With countries committing to net-zero emissions by 2050, the global green hydrogen sector is poised for significant growth, supported by substantial investment and broad international cooperation. As of May 2024, more than 50 countries had published national hydrogen strategies, setting targets for a projected electrolyser capacity of 113.5 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 and 287 GW by 2050.

This report draws on the lessons learned from the crafting of these hydrogen strategies to assist policy makers in drafting (or updating) strategies of their own, including their potential to drive economic growth, and foster investor confidence and industrial development. The report also addresses various challenges hindering the adoption of green hydrogen, such as technological, economic and regulatory barriers. It calls for flexible and adaptive strategies to navigate these obstacles, ensuring the successful deployment and integration of hydrogen technologies.

The report also addresses long-term planning, barrier identification, export considerations, target and priority setting, governance and policies, and provides a step-by-step methodology to guide the drafting of hydrogen strategies.

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International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) provides reliable datasets on global renewable energy capacity and use. The 2024 report includes data on power-generation capacity (2014–2023), actual power generation (2014–2022), and energy balances (2021–2022) for over 150 countries. Data is sourced from IRENA surveys, national statistics, industry reports, and other reliable sources.

Investment statistics (2013–2022) are included, based on data from OECD-DAC and 20 major financial institutions, presented in USD at 2021 prices. Renewable power capacity reflects the maximum net generating capacity of installations, measured in megawatts (MW), while generation is reported in gigawatt-hours (GWh). Pumped storage is included under hydropower but excluded from total renewable energy figures.

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Russia is signaling its interest in joining the global hydrogen race and envisions itself as a future hydrogen supplier for Europe and the Asia-Pacific. This chapter analyzes the strategic hydrogen opportunities in Russia in the context of global events and low-carbon developments.

The main message is that Russian hydrogen development is likely to be determined more by a technological strategic orientation than by domestic market demand. The failure to develop a domestic market and lack of matching demand will become serious obstacles to achieving Russia’s ambitious technology development goals. Without significant domestic hydrogen demand, Russian hydrogen technologies will miss commercialization opportunities and a suitable scale-up. A significant increase in domestic low-carbon hydrogen demand can only occur by adopting more ambitious national decarbonization policies, which seem unlikely in the foreseeable future.

This chapter points out that stimulating domestic hydrogen demand can also be achieved by tightening transport emission standards, setting targets for the public transport sector, phasing in hydrogen content in gas distribution networks, and implementing a variety of tax incentives and subsidies.

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Renewable power generation capacity is measured as the maximum net generating capacity of power plants and other installations that use renewable energy sources to produce electricity. For most countries and technologies, the data reflects the capacity installed and connected at the end of the calendar year. Data has been obtained from a variety of sources, including an IRENA questionnaire, official national statistics, industry association reports, other reports and news articles.

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The analysis underscores the significant role of the transportation sector as a source of greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakhstan, accounting for approximately 10%. With Kazakhstan's strategic geographic location and the government's ambition to develop international transit logistics routes, the sector is poised for continued growth. However, it heavily relies on petroleum products for energy, highlighting the urgent need for decarbonization to achieve the country's goal of carbon neutrality by 2060.

Hydrogen technologies emerge as a pivotal solution, aligning with global trends observed in over 25 countries, including those with similar geographical and economic profiles to Kazakhstan. Notably, China, with its extensive border with Kazakhstan, leads in hydrogen transportation initiatives, as seen in projects like the Belt and Road Initiative. Recommendations for policymakers emphasize integrating the transportation sector into the national hydrogen strategy, synchronizing energy and transportation policies, analyzing international best practices, aligning development goals with hydrogen production, fostering stakeholder coordination, adapting regulations to international standards, and enhancing international collaboration on hydrogen transport initiatives.

These efforts not only address emissions reduction but also position Kazakhstan as a key player in the global hydrogen economy.

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This report emphasizes the critical importance of developing a country's entire hydrogen value chain, from production to end use. It discusses the benefits of this comprehensive approach, particularly in terms of industrial development, innovation, and sustainable development dimensions, including energy independence.

The report argues that achieving a just transition is contingent on adopting this integrated strategy. Acknowledging the inherent complexities, the report addresses multifaceted problems, contrasting the appeal of simpler export-focused strategies. It outlines organizational strategies for navigating these complexities, advocating for a phased approach from small to large projects, prioritizing domestic demand.

The document also explores options for local production of equipment and components, highlighting how large green hydrogen projects can address water stress and food security concerns. Finally, the report underscores the critical roles of standardization and international cooperation in effectively managing challenges and realizing the potential of green hydrogen initiatives.

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The solar PV sector has seen rapid global growth, driven by cost reductions and expanding markets. In 2013, eclareon and the German Solar Association initiated the "ENABLING PV" project to promote PV applications in new markets. Kyrgyzstan, with its untapped solar potential, was the subject of the first report in 2018, followed by the updated study in 2023, available here and highlighting changes in energy policy and regulation. Cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and Germany aims to support market stakeholders through round table discussions.

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The article presents a comprehensive review of Russia's renewable energy potential, encompassing hydro, solar, wind, geothermal energy, biomass, and the potential for low-carbon hydrogen production. It delves into the technical potential, major development trends, existing opportunities, and significant barriers within the sector. Moreover, it examines the key policies and drivers that have an impact on the industry, and it outlines a forecast for the future of renewable energy in the country amid the current era of global confrontation.

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Over 70 countries globally have drafted or adopted national hydrogen strategies, but countries in Central Asia, the Caspian region, and Eastern Europe are still evaluating hydrogen's role in their long-term strategies. In the 2022 hydrogen studies (IRENA, Hydrogen Council), these countries are considered a "gray zone" and excluded from modeling due to lack of data. However, nine countries in this study cover an area and population about double that of Argentina, and their combined CO2 emissions equal Germany's. These countries' transition towards low-carbon development and establishing a hydrogen economy will be determined by their individual policies, energy sector state, growth rates, and infrastructural opportunities and constraints. The countries can be divided into four groups with similar policies and features. The potential production of low-carbon hydrogen in all countries is 3.4-13.2 Mt annually by 2040, with gas-producing countries having an advantage. Four scenario models were identified for hydrogen economy deployment, but each country's transition will depend on national economic circumstances. Implementing pilot projects and developing joint export-oriented strategies will unlock the potential of the hydrogen sector.

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This article, available in German and Russian, describes the status of the Russian hydrogen strategy as of February 2022 and analyzes the main consequences of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine on future of hydrogen economy in Russia

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